Research
Articles and Studies
Everything longer than a daily review, newest first. A study takes one question back as far as the data goes and lists every episode. An article is a longer read on what is moving stocks now. Both state their sources.
Educational commentary, not investment advice.
- Article
Oct 30, 2026 · Market Video, Month in Review · Updated Oct 30, 2026
October 2026 Market Review: The Qs Fell as Energy Led
SPY, QQQ and IWM took different paths while energy stocks rose. Oil spot data runs only through October 27.
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Oct 30, 2026 · AI debt · Bonds and stocks
AI Debt — Week Ended October 30, 2026
Six of seven corroborated AI stocks fell; the same eight Meta, Alphabet and Amazon bond last trades split four up and four down. Oracle remains held.
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Oct 29, 2026 · Market Video, After Close · Updated Oct 29, 2026
Split Close After the Fed: Alphabet, ServiceNow and After-Bell Results | October 29 After Close
SPY held its 50-day average while QQQ stayed below its own; Alphabet and ServiceNow fell, then Amazon and Coinbase reported.
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Oct 29, 2026 · Market Video, Morning Watch
Morning Watch: Fed Hold Meets an Earnings Split | GOOGL, MSFT, NOW
SPY, QQQ and IWM after the Fed hold, with three distinct earnings reactions
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Oct 28, 2026 · Market Video, After Close · Updated Oct 28, 2026
Fed Hold, Alphabet and ServiceNow After Hours | October 28 After Close
SPY, QQQ and IWM closed higher; Alphabet and ServiceNow fell in separately recorded after-hours trading after results.
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Oct 28, 2026 · Market Video, Morning Watch · Updated Oct 28, 2026
Fed Decision Day Morning Watch: SPY, QQQ, IWM and the Second Close
Recorded premarket levels for six tickers and a 24-meeting study of SPY and QQQ around scheduled Fed decisions.
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Oct 27, 2026 · Market Video, After Close · Updated Oct 27, 2026
Earnings Divide: October 27 After Close
SPY reclaimed its 50-day, QQQ remained below, and new Seagate, Robinhood and Visa results added the next test.
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Oct 27, 2026 · Market Video, Morning Watch
Earnings Test the Bounce: October 27 Morning Watch
Corning, SoFi and Coca-Cola results meet dated SPY, QQQ and Celestica chart levels.
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Oct 26, 2026 · Market Video, After Close · Updated Oct 26, 2026
Bounce Versus Cash: October 26 After Close
Completed October 26 daily levels, recorded after-hours observations and reported earnings from Celestica, Cadence and Rambus.
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Oct 26, 2026 · Market Video, Morning Watch
Cash vs Price: October 26 Morning Watch
Completed October 23 daily levels, separate recorded October 26 premarket observations, and the cash-versus-price test for WDC, Bloom and Newmont.
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Oct 25, 2026 · Market Video, Weekend Review
Sunday Index Deep Dive: Five Different Market Tests
Completed October 23 charts show different SPY, QQQ, IWM, DIA and RSP structures, alongside separately dated SLB and American Express/Visa business tests.
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Oct 24, 2026 · Market Video, Weekend Review
Saturday Setup: A Split Market | SPY, QQQ and Stock Tests
Completed October 23 charts show weaker near-term SPY and QQQ positioning alongside firmer equal-weight performance, with separate Newmont and Deckers/On tests.
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Oct 23, 2026 · AI debt · Bonds and stocks
AI Debt — Week Ended October 23, 2026
Seven corroborated AI stocks fell; the same eight Meta, Alphabet and Amazon bond trades split, while Oracle’s close remains held.
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Oct 23, 2026 · Market Video, After Close
Friday Levels Break: MXL, Newmont, WDC and Bloom | After Close
Completed October 23 market levels and reported earnings cash flows
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Oct 23, 2026 · Market Video, Morning Watch
October 23 Morning Watch: The Cash Divide After Four Earnings Reports
Completed October 22 market levels and four issuer earnings reports, with separate recorded October 23 premarket observations where corroborated.
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Oct 22, 2026 · Market Video, After Close
Bloom Energy and WDC Earnings: Growth, Cash and Broken Levels | After Close
October 22 After Close: Bloom Energy and Western Digital earnings, cash-flow differences, broken daily references and verified watchlist movers.
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Oct 22, 2026 · Market Video, Morning Watch
Rebound Under Pressure: Tesla, Meta and Lam After Earnings
October 22 Morning Watch: reported Saudi security risks, technology investment concerns, separate premarket prices and daily reclaim levels.
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Oct 21, 2026 · Market Video, After Close
Meta and Tesla Earnings: Profit, Spending and an Unfinished Reclaim
October 21 After Close: index reclaim conditions, Meta and Tesla earnings and cash flow, separate after-hours snapshots and ten watchlist movers.
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Oct 21, 2026 · Market Video, Morning Watch
Netflix and SpaceX: Opposite Premarket Reactions After Earnings
October 21 Morning Watch: Netflix and SpaceX reported results, separate premarket observations, SPY/QQQ daily recovery tests and Tesla ahead of earnings.
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Oct 20, 2026 · Market Video, After Close
Netflix and SpaceX Report: Earnings, Outlook and the Cash Test
October 20 After Close: uneven index recovery, actual Netflix and SpaceX results, separate after-hours snapshots and all ten qualifying-watchlist movers.
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Oct 20, 2026 · Market Video, Morning Watch
Morning Watch: The Reclaim Test | GE and 3M Earnings
SPY and QQQ face Monday reclaim tests, Netflix and Tesla approach earnings, and GE and 3M reported results require separate earnings, cash and accounting comparisons.
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Oct 19, 2026 · Market Video, After Close
Stocks Rebound, Key Levels Remain Overhead
October 19 After Close: SPY and QQQ bounced, Cleveland-Cliffs extended its earnings move, Tesla reclaimed its 50-day, and Netflix slipped ahead of results.
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Oct 19, 2026 · Market Video, Morning Watch
QQQ Bounce Test, Cleveland-Cliffs Earnings | Morning Watch (Oct 19)
SPY and QQQ recovery tests after the Friday selloff, newly reported Cleveland-Cliffs earnings, and Netflix and Tesla ahead of results.
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Oct 18, 2026 · Sunday Recap
Sunday Recap #3: Tech Breaks Lower. The Cash Test Comes Next.
QQQ's next levels, the AI stock–bond split and a 50-company earnings preview.
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Oct 18, 2026 · Market Video, Weekend Review
QQQ After the Selloff: The Levels That Matter Next
A Sunday chart review using October 16 completed trading: weekly context, daily moving averages, filled gaps, downside references and reclaim conditions.
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Oct 17, 2026 · Market Video, Test the Theory, Trading Setups
Does Buying the Retest Work? NVIDIA, Tesla & AMD Since 2020
A daily breakout and retest comparison across 94 completed NVIDIA, Tesla and AMD setups since 2020, including losses and missed trades.
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Oct 16, 2026 · AI debt · Bonds and stocks
AI Debt — End of Week, October 16
All eight tracked stocks fell this week, while the selected Meta, Alphabet and Amazon bond trade prices firmed.
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Oct 16, 2026 · Market Video, After Close
Tech Breaks Lower: QQQ Loses the September Gap
October 16 After Close: SPY and QQQ weakened, Tesla reversed its early jump, and the final closing watchlist separated energy and defense gains from AI-infrastructure losses.
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Oct 16, 2026 · Market Video, Morning Watch · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Tesla Rallies, Netflix Drops | SPY & QQQ Morning Watch (Oct 16)
October 16 premarket: Tesla +4.15%, Netflix -2.52%. SPY, QQQ and Google daily levels, gaps and moving averages in a dated five-chart review.
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Oct 15, 2026 · Market Video, After Close · Updated Oct 15, 2026
Micron & CoreWeave Bounce Back | After Close, Oct 15
SPY recovers, QQQ nearly erases its morning decline, and Micron and CoreWeave rebound. Closing levels, TSMC earnings and Top 5 Up/Down charts.
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Oct 15, 2026 · Market Video, Morning Watch
PPI Rises 1.3%: SPY, QQQ, Micron, CoreWeave & TSMC | Oct 15
September PPI rises 1.3%. Review SPY, QQQ, Micron, CoreWeave and TSMC with an 8:35 a.m. ET snapshot, daily gaps and levels to reclaim.
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Oct 14, 2026 · Market Video, After Close · Updated Oct 14, 2026
CoreWeave Drops 15%, Tech Slides After CPI | October 14 Market Close
The October 14 close: SPY, QQQ, CoreWeave, GlobalFoundries and SoFi, plus the qualifying watchlist’s Top 5 up and down.
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Oct 14, 2026 · Market Video, Market Update, CPI · Updated Oct 14, 2026
After CPI: CoreWeave Sinks, GFS Rises — October 14
SPY, QQQ, CoreWeave, GlobalFoundries and SoFi at 10:12 a.m. ET, plus ASML and Bank of America earnings charts.
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Oct 13, 2026 · Market Video, After Close · Updated Oct 13, 2026
After Close: Vistra Rebounds, Tech Still Lags — October 13
SPY, QQQ, Vistra, Micron and SoFi from morning to close, plus individual charts for the qualifying watchlist’s five gainers and five losers.
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Oct 13, 2026 · Morning Watch, SPY · QQQ · VST · MU · SOFI · Updated Oct 13, 2026
Morning Watch: Tech Under Pressure Before CPI — October 13
SPY, QQQ, Micron, Vistra and SoFi: dated pre-market notes, with levels to reclaim, the wider trading ranges and insider-sale context.
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Oct 11, 2026 · Sunday Recap
Sunday Recap #2
The second 5.2% Friday since 2017, and a profit line that stopped matching its cash.
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Oct 9, 2026 · AI debt · Bonds and stocks
AI Debt — End of Week, October 9
The same eight Meta, Alphabet and Amazon bonds, all with October 9 trades, alongside a week in which the AI stocks split down the middle.
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Oct 5, 2026 · The 10-year Treasury yield and US recessions · 8 episodes
Does a High 10-Year Mean a Recession Is Coming?
Recessions have begun with the 10-year at 14.94% and at 0.87%. The level does not separate recessions from anything else. The shape of the curve does, and it is not inverted today.
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Oct 4, 2026 · Sunday Recap
Sunday Recap #1: Cheap Earnings Aren't a Turnaround
The week's levels checked against what the market actually did, the week's biggest movers, and eight company-confirmed dates for the week ahead.
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Oct 2, 2026 · Earnings, valuation and stock-price recovery
Earnings vs. Price: Recovery Watch
A weekly check of what companies earn, what forecasts assume, and whether their stock prices are recovering.
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Oct 2, 2026 · Earnings, valuation and price recovery · ADBE / QCOM
Adobe vs. Qualcomm: Earnings Growth Is Not a Turnaround.
Adobe's earnings grew while its price weakened. QCOM's earnings weakened while its chart began repairing. Both use the same trailing adjusted P/E calculation.
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Oct 2, 2026 · AI debt · Bonds and stocks
AI Debt — End of Week, October 2
The same eight Meta, Alphabet and Amazon bonds from September 25, with updated traded prices and yields, alongside the week in AI stocks.
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Oct 1, 2026 · VIX · 16 episodes
The Coiled Spring Nobody Counted
The VIX's six-month range is in the bottom tenth since 2003, and the reflex reading is that a spike is loading. Across 579 compressed days, held against days at the same VIX level, big spikes followed less often rather than more. The size of that gap does not survive dropping 2003 and 2004, and this piece shows which half does.
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Oct 1, 2026 · US Treasury debt buybacks · 4 episodes
The Buyback Was Already on the Calendar
Treasury bought back $6bn of its own debt and the reflex reading was that it is bullish for Bitcoin. Across all 161 operations since the program went live, buyback days are indistinguishable from ordinary days, and the headline number was a maximum Treasury had announced in advance.
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Sep 29, 2026 · Closed-end funds, Private markets, AI · Updated Sep 29, 2026
The Anthropic Fund That Looks Like a Tech Trust
BST's second largest holding is a company you cannot buy, and it carries nearly twice the Anthropic weight of the fund actually marketed as private venture access.
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Sep 29, 2026 · IPOs, Concentration, Index investing · Updated Sep 29, 2026
One Name Out of Fifty Carried the Whole Thing
The 50 largest US listings since 2020, measured from the price you could actually get. Palantir alone made more than the basket made in total, which means the other 49 were a net loss.
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Sep 27, 2026 · Megacap long bonds issued in 2020 · 7 episodes
The 2020 Vintage: Everyone Who Bought a Long Bond Was Buying an All-Time High
Seven long bonds from Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Oracle, Nvidia and Meta. Every one is deep underwater, and every one trades at a tighter credit spread than the day it was issued.
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Sep 26, 2026 · Corporate bonds after issue · 4 episodes
What Happens to a Bond After You Buy It
An Oracle 30-year issued in February is quoted near 84 today. Four bonds from the past show the three ways that story ends, with dated prices from fund filings rather than estimates.
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Sep 26, 2026 · S&P 500 names near 52-week lows · 16 episodes
The De-Rating List: Same Screen, Opposite Meaning
136 S&P 500 names sit within 10% of their 52-week low. Splitting them by operating income separates a multiple coming in from earnings going the wrong way, and most lists never do it.
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Sep 25, 2026 · AI capex financing · 4 episodes
The yields that didn't kill the AI trade
The 10-year hit its highest since 2007 and the AI buildout's existing debt did not get one dollar more expensive. What repriced was the next dollar, not the last one.
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Sep 23, 2026 · AMZN · 15 episodes
Every $AMZN Drop of 10% or More Since 2014
Fifteen drawdowns, from 10.8% to 56%. Only four of them were the whole market falling, and the one it is in right now is not.
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Sep 16, 2026 · Rates, Global bonds, Fed
Ahead of the Fed: High Bond Yields Across Major Markets, With China an Outlier
The Fed decides at 2 PM. Borrowing costs sit at two-decade highs across the major markets we checked, and the one big exception has the opposite problem.
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Sep 14, 2026 · AI stocks, Balance sheets · Updated Sep 15, 2026
Borrowers Down, Payers Up
Is Monday's premarket split in AI stocks about balance sheets rather than stories?
Also here: the daily stock review, the twice-daily movers and the week ahead in earnings.
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