The first clean snapshot
This is the October 9 follow-up to last week's update and to the original September 25 study, The yields that didn't kill the AI trade. The basket has not changed: four Meta notes, two Alphabet, two Amazon, matched by CUSIP.
One housekeeping note worth a sentence: for the first time since this series began, every one of the eight security pages shows a last trade dated the same day, October 9. Prior snapshots mixed last-trade dates; this one does not.
Bonds: October 9 against October 2
Prices are per $100 of face value. The two price columns are last reported trades seven days apart — a comparison of snapshots, not a measured return: last trades differ in time of day, size and execution terms.
| Issuer | CUSIP | Coupon | Maturity | Oct. 2 | Oct. 9 | Reported yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meta | 30303M8X3 | 5.500% | 2045-11-15 | 83.27 | 83.34 | 7.108% |
| Meta | 30303MAJ1 | 6.200% | 2046-05-15 | 90.27 | 90.56 | 7.099% |
| Meta | 30303M8Y1 | 5.750% | 2065-11-15 | 78.33 | 77.90 | 7.508% |
| Meta | 30303MAL6 | 6.450% | 2066-05-15 | 87.41 | 86.91 | 7.485% |
| Alphabet | 02079KBP1 | 5.650% | 2056-02-15 | 87.57 | 87.48 | 6.622% |
| Alphabet | 02079KCU9 | 6.375% | 2056-08-15 | 96.19 | 96.47 | 6.648% |
| Amazon | 023135DH6 | 5.800% | 2056-03-13 | 87.88 | 87.87 | 6.754% |
| Amazon | 023135EG7 | 6.100% | 2056-07-09 | 91.63 | 91.49 | 6.767% |
The week's whole move fits in half a point. The largest price change in the basket is the Meta 6.450% of 2066, down 0.50 per $100; the two Amazon notes moved a penny and fourteen cents. The two longest Meta notes — the 2065 and 2066 — both eased, with reported yields up about 4 basis points to 7.508% and 7.485%, still the highest yields in the table. The 20-year Meta pair actually firmed slightly.
All eight notes remain below par. As last week: that alone does not establish distress — market yields, remaining maturity, coupon and credit spreads all move these prices, and the 2065/2066 notes are not interchangeable with the 2045/2046 pair.
New issues: none — the basket stays unchanged
A review of Meta, Alphabet and Amazon SEC submission indexes for October 2 through October 9 found only insider ownership forms (Forms 4, 144 and 3). No prospectus supplements, free-writing prospectuses or offering-related 8-Ks appeared, so no new series joins the table. As always, this is a scoped review of these three issuers, not a claim that no AI-related company borrowed anywhere this week.
Stocks: the week the AI trade split
| Company | Oct. 2 close | Oct. 9 close | Weekly price return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amazon (AMZN) | $251.52 | $262.43 | +4.34% |
| Microsoft (MSFT) | $517.53 | $535.07 | +3.39% |
| Alphabet (GOOGL) | $343.50 | $351.66 | +2.38% |
| Oracle (ORCL) | $142.30 | $141.40 | -0.63% |
| Meta (META) | $728.08 | $718.67 | -1.29% |
| CoreWeave (CRWV) | $89.62 | $82.08 | -8.41% |
| Nebius (NBIS) | $242.81 | $221.07 | -8.95% |
| IREN (IREN) | $41.76 | $35.19 | -15.73% |
| Nasdaq-100 ETF (QQQ) | $749.58 | $751.27 | +0.23% |
Returns run close to close, exclude dividends, and are calculated before rounding.
Three up, five down — and the split was by size, not by borrowing. Of the three issuers whose bonds sit in the table above, two rose — Amazon +4.34% and Alphabet +2.38% — while Meta slipped 1.29%. Microsoft, which has no notes in this basket, gained 3.39%. The week's damage concentrated in the smaller AI-infrastructure names: CoreWeave fell 8.41%, Nebius 8.95% and IREN 15.73%, IREN's second straight week at the bottom of this table. QQQ, up 0.23%, sat almost exactly between the two camps.
This series does not assign causes to weekly moves, and one week is not a verdict on any business. What the table does show, on its own terms: the dispersion INSIDE the AI trade was far wider this week than the gap between the AI trade and the index. The megacaps — borrowers included — moved single digits at most in either market, while the equity of the smaller AI-infrastructure names repriced sharply.
The rate backdrop
The latest Federal Reserve 10-year observation available during preparation was 5.22% on October 8, versus 5.24% on October 1 — 2 basis points lower. The next H.15 release lands October 13. Federal Reserve H.15 via FRED
The Treasury comparison ends October 8; the bond trades and stock closes are October 9. The endpoints are labeled separately, and no credit-spread change is computed from mismatched observations.
What to watch next
Same discipline as every week: for the existing notes, follow the same CUSIPs. For new borrowing, track maturity, coupon, initial yield and amount separately when it happens — none did this week. For the stocks, this week is a reminder that “the AI trade” is not one position: the megacaps and the smaller AI-infrastructure names parted ways by more than ten percentage points in five sessions.
Updated October 9, 2026. Educational commentary, not investment advice. Both the bond snapshot and stock-return graphic accompany this study. Read last week · Back to all studies.