October 16 Morning Watch
A dated premarket chart walkthrough prepared before the day's import/export prices and industrial production releases. Quotes below are retained episode observations, not continuously live prices. Daily candles and moving averages use completed regular sessions through October 15.
Good morning, everyone. SPY is slightly higher this morning, while the Qs are barely moving. Netflix is giving back a good part of yesterday's gain. Tesla is moving the other way, so we have a few very different charts to work through before the open. Import and export prices are still to come, along with industrial production.
SPY: holding the recovered averages
SPY closed near seven hundred and seventy-two last night, and it is trading around seven hundred and seventy-three in premarket. That puts it just above yesterday's intraday high. Yesterday's high, around seven hundred and seventy-three, is the first area I want to see it hold. Underneath that, the twenty-day average is near seven hundred and seventy-one, with the fifty-day closer to seven hundred and sixty-nine. If we pull back, I would rather see that area tested and defended than chase the first green candle. For a daily retest, I want the test and a daily close back above the level. If those averages give way, yesterday's low around seven hundred and sixty-four comes back into focus, followed by the late-September lows around seven hundred and sixty-two to seven hundred and sixty-three.
QQQ: the fifty-day and the gap below
The Qs closed at seven hundred and twenty-eight, and they are still trading right around that number this morning. So there is less strength here than in SPY, even though the overnight move is small. The fifty-day average is just underneath the premarket price. Above us, that late-September low is still a level that needs reclaiming. Getting back above it would improve the short-term picture, but the twenty-day average is farther up. One green morning would not clear all of that overhead. If the fifty-day does not hold, yesterday's low is around seven hundred and fifteen. Below that, there is a remaining daily gap from September seventeenth, roughly seven hundred and twelve to seven hundred and thirteen. That gives us actual reference areas below the market. I would watch how price behaves if it gets there, rather than assume a gap has to fill or that it automatically stops a decline.
Netflix: a nearby gap to reclaim
Netflix is the weak one on this list. It closed near seventy-three yesterday, and it is trading just under seventy-one in premarket, down about two and a half percent. There is company news in the background. Netflix named Peter Rice as its next content chief yesterday, replacing Bela Bajaria later this month. Earnings are also coming Tuesday after the close. That is useful context, but it does not tell us exactly why shares are selling this morning. The chart is already below the small daily gap left between Wednesday's high and yesterday's low, around seventy-one. This is a gap the stock needs to reclaim. The exact edges are on the chart. Yesterday's high around seventy-three comes next, followed by the fifty-day average around seventy-five. Below the premarket price, the twenty-day average sits just above seventy, with the September eighteenth low also near seventy. It is a fairly tight area, and I would want to see how it handles a test. The bigger picture is still mixed. It is above the twenty-day average, but below the fifty-day and the two-hundred-day. If that nearby area breaks, I would not assume yesterday's bounce has fixed the chart.
Google: steadier, with dated steps below
Google looks steadier. Yesterday's close was near three hundred and forty-nine. In premarket, Google is around three hundred and fifty. That is a small gain rather than a big breakout. Google announced a new quantum-computing research result yesterday using its Willow chip. It is a real hardware milestone, although making it work at a practical scale remains a challenge. On the stock chart, yesterday's high around three hundred and fifty-two is the first level above us. Beyond that, the October eighth high is around three hundred and fifty-seven. Below price, the twenty-day and fifty-day averages are grouped around three hundred and forty-seven and three hundred and forty-five. Farther down, the two-hundred-day is near three hundred and forty-one, close to yesterday's low. That gives Google a fairly clear set of steps. Holding the nearby averages would keep the short-term setup stronger. Losing them would shift attention back toward that lower cluster.
Tesla: testing an overhead daily gap
Tesla is up a little over four percent in premarket. Yesterday it closed near three hundred and sixty-two. This morning it is around three hundred and seventy-seven. Tesla held its new sports car demonstration yesterday. That puts the product story back in focus, but a demonstration is not the same thing as production or deliveries. Price is now testing the daily gap from October thirteenth, around three hundred and seventy-seven to three hundred and seventy-eight. It has already moved well above yesterday's high, so that old high is no longer the immediate ceiling. If it can clear this gap area and hold a pullback, the observed premarket high around three hundred and eighty-two is the next nearby reference. The two-hundred-day average is farther up, around three hundred and eighty-eight. If this early move fades, the twenty-day average near three hundred and seventy-one is the first major moving average below us. Farther down, yesterday's high and the small daily gap around three hundred and sixty-four come back into play. I would rather see whether buyers defend the move after the open than treat a premarket jump as a confirmed daily breakout.
Closing notes
That is the morning watch: a firmer SPY, the Qs still working around their fifty-day, Netflix under pressure, and Tesla testing a gap above yesterday's range. You can find the charts and daily levels on YieldTerminal Pro, and follow along on YouTube and X. And remember, this is market research only, not a recommendation to buy or sell. Have a good morning.
Chart basis and sources
Prices are USD. Premarket observations remain separate from completed daily candles. Changes compare the retained premarket observation with the October 15 regular close and exclude dividends. Daily gap ranges come from completed regular-session high/low ranges; a premarket crossing is distinct from a regular-session candle testing that range. The episode does not forecast a gap fill or a guaranteed turning point.
Netflix content-chief announcement. Netflix earnings schedule. Google Willow research announcement. Tesla product page. Dated Roadster event reporting. Official import/export calendar. Official industrial production schedule.
Historical and extended-hours data: Yahoo Finance. Netflix historical OHLC uses the adjusted share basis following its ten-for-one November 2025 split; no second split adjustment is applied.
Explore Daily Levels for October 16, the Movers and market-video archive, all research, and the October 15 After Close review.