October 22 Morning Watch
Good morning, everyone. Wednesday's recovery is under pressure before the open. SPY is lower, QQQ are weaker, and Tesla and Meta have reversed the early gains we recorded after their earnings. Lam Research has also reported, with a chart that was already weak into earnings. We'll separate the overnight security headlines from the company results, then look at what these charts would need to reclaim.
The overnight risk backdrop
The geopolitical concern is real. Associated Press reports that the United States ordered non-emergency diplomatic staff and their families to leave Saudi Arabia after renewed Houthi attacks. Overnight market reports also describe higher oil prices and concern about energy supplies. That is a risk backdrop, not proof that a new oil-production outage has occurred. Markets are also digesting technology earnings and the cost of AI investment. There is more than one issue in this morning's selling.
SPY: the fifty-day reclaim is under pressure
October 22 recorded premarket observation: $766.04 (-0.91% versus the October 21 regular close of $773.09). Completed-session 20-day SMA: $770.88; 50-day SMA: $768.34; 200-day SMA: $726.29.
Start with SPY. It finished Wednesday around seven hundred seventy-three dollars, above its twenty-day and fifty-day averages. In our early premarket snapshot, it was around seven hundred sixty-six, about one percent lower. That puts it beneath Wednesday's low and the fifty-day average, both near seven hundred sixty-eight. Last night's reclaim is now under pressure; we need a recovery through that area rather than pretending it is still holding.
Above that, the twenty-day near seven hundred seventy-one is the next moving-average reference. If the regular session cannot reclaim the fifty-day, Friday's closing low near seven hundred sixty-three becomes an important dated reference below. These are conditions to watch, not a forecast that price must reach either level. For confirmation after a reclaim, I want a daily retest and a close above.
QQQ: a partial recovery faces another test
October 22 recorded premarket observation: $713.86 (-1.56% versus the October 21 regular close of $725.20). Completed-session 20-day SMA: $739.07; 50-day SMA: $726.75; 200-day SMA: $676.49.
QQQ finished Wednesday around seven hundred twenty-five, still below their fifty-day average near seven hundred twenty-seven. They crossed that average during the session but did not hold it at the close. This morning's observation was around seven hundred fourteen, down about one point six percent and beneath Wednesday's low near seven hundred twenty. That former low is now a nearer reclaim test, with the fifty-day higher overhead.
The bigger picture matters here. The earlier closing decline from October sixth to October sixteenth was about six and a half percent. The separate rebound through Wednesday was just over two percent. This morning's drop puts that partial recovery under pressure. Friday's closing low near seven hundred ten is nearby, while the two-hundred-day average near six hundred seventy-six is much farther below. Being above that long-term average does not resolve the short-term weakness.
Tesla: the first earnings reaction reversed
October 22 recorded premarket observation: $372.01 (-3.74% versus the October 21 regular close of $386.47). Completed-session 20-day SMA: $370.03; 50-day SMA: $362.18; 200-day SMA: $386.94.
Now Tesla. The early after-hours gain we discussed last night has reversed. The stock was around three hundred seventy-two dollars in the refreshed premarket snapshot, about three point seven percent below Wednesday's close. It is back above the twenty-day average near three hundred seventy, but remains well below Wednesday's low around three hundred eighty-one. The fifty-day near three hundred sixty-two is still underneath. The two-hundred-day near three hundred eighty-seven is overhead, and yesterday's regular close never confirmed a reclaim of it.
The financial report helps explain why the first price reaction was not the whole story. Quarterly revenue was about twenty-eight billion dollars, essentially flat from a year earlier. Operating profit fell fifty-six percent to seven hundred eighteen million. Operating cash flow was roughly unchanged at six point three billion, but capital spending more than doubled to four point seven billion. Company free cash flow fell sixty-two percent to about one point five billion. Reported earnings were twenty-two cents a share; the company's adjusted figure was forty-eight cents. Keep those measures separate.
Meta: revenue growth and investment spending
October 22 recorded premarket observation: $676.98 (-2.94% versus the October 21 regular close of $697.52). Completed-session 20-day SMA: $729.54; 50-day SMA: $661.46; 200-day SMA: $632.62.
Meta was around six hundred seventy-seven in the refreshed premarket snapshot, about three percent below Wednesday's close. It has fallen back below Wednesday's low near six hundred ninety. That level now needs a reclaim, followed by a daily retest and close above; the earlier improvement has not held. The fifty-day near six hundred sixty-one and two-hundred-day near six hundred thirty-three remain underneath. The twenty-day near seven hundred thirty is overhead. The chart has short-term weakness while still sitting above its longer averages; both observations can be true.
Meta's revenue grew twenty-six percent to about sixty-four point six billion dollars. Reported operating profit was about thirteen billion, including a legal charge of roughly nine point nine billion. The company says operating profit would have been about twenty-two point nine billion excluding that charge. That is a company charge-excluded comparison, not the reported result, and the charge is not an identical amount of cash paid during the quarter.
The cash question remains. Meta generated about thirty-two point eight billion dollars of operating cash flow. Capital spending, including finance-lease principal, was about thirty-four point nine billion, leaving company free cash flow negative by about two point one billion. Its full-year capital-spending outlook is one hundred thirty-five to one hundred forty-five billion. That is a forecast for the year, not spending all completed this quarter.
Lam Research: reported growth and a weaker chart
Lam Research reported too. Revenue for its September quarter was about eight point two billion dollars. Reported earnings were two dollars and nineteen cents a share, versus the company's adjusted figure of two dollars and twenty cents. For the December quarter, management forecasts revenue between eight point two and nine billion dollars. That outlook is not revenue already earned, and we have not verified an analyst-consensus comparison for a beat or miss claim.
Fresh October 22 premarket quote not corroborated after bounded checks. Completed October 21 regular close: $260.81. Completed-session 20-day SMA: $308.04; 50-day SMA: $306.45; 200-day SMA: $283.18. No current-price return or premarket marker is represented.
Lam finished Wednesday around two hundred sixty-one dollars, below its twenty-day average near three hundred eight, fifty-day near three hundred six, and two-hundred-day near two hundred eighty-three. The July twenty-ninth closing low near two hundred fifty-two is a dated downside reference. The earlier closing decline from June's peak to that July low was almost forty-two percent. The separate rebound through Wednesday was only about three percent. We could not corroborate a fresh premarket quote, so this chart uses Wednesday's completed close. A daily close below that July reference would weaken the recovery case; a new break is not confirmed by this completed-session chart.
The next confirmation
Weekly jobless claims are on today's official calendar. This recorded premarket snapshot is not a report on that release. The practical question is whether the regular session can reclaim the levels already lost before the open. A bounce can improve the immediate picture, but daily confirmation still needs the retest and close above.
Daily candles, moving averages and closing-decline calculations end October 21. October 22 premarket prices are separate recorded observations, not completed daily candles or continuously live quotes. Historical returns exclude dividends. Spoken share-price levels are rounded naturally; chart labels retain two decimal places.
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And remember, this is market research only, not a recommendation to buy or sell.