October 19 Morning Watch
Daily history ends October 16. Premarket observations are separate dated episode observations, not completed Monday candles or continuously live prices. Spoken price levels are rounded; the charts and written levels retain their exact prices.
Good morning, everyone. The market is trying to bounce after Friday's selloff, but the first question is whether buyers can recover the daily levels that broke last week. The Qs are firmer before the open, while Cleveland-Cliffs is sharply higher after reporting earnings. Netflix and Tesla are also on the watchlist ahead of their results this week.
SPY: recovery below the daily averages
Let's start with SPY. Our premarket observation was around 767.02, compared with Friday's close at 763.25. That is an improvement, but it still leaves price beneath the 50-day average at 768.50 and the 20-day at 771.18. Those are the first two areas where I want to see whether the rebound can build support.
Friday matters because SPY traded as low as 760.64 before finishing near the bottom of its daily range. A daily close back above the 50-day would be an initial improvement. For a retest to count, I want a daily test of that level and a close above it. A quick move through the average before falling back below would leave the repair unfinished.
If the rebound fails, Friday's 763.25 close and 760.64 intraday low give us dated reference points below. The broader picture is less damaged than the technology chart: SPY remains above its 200-day average, around 725.01. That distinction matters. Short-term weakness and a break of the longer-term trend are different conditions, and we should describe the one the chart actually shows.
QQQ: an early bounce with repair still ahead
Now the Qs. The premarket observation was 717.41 against Friday's 709.80 close, a rebound of about one percent. But Friday's high was 725.96, with the 50-day average just above it at 726.77. That area is where the next meaningful test sits if the rebound continues.
The size of the recent decline also deserves context. From the October sixth closing high of 759.66 to Friday's close, the Qs lost about 6.56 percent. An early bounce does not erase that move. First, I want to see whether buyers can regain Friday's high and the 50-day average, then hold above that area on a daily retest and close.
If they cannot, Friday's close and its 707.23 intraday low remain the downside references. Further above, the 20-day average is 742.52, followed by the remaining October thirteenth gap between 744.20 and 744.85. Those are areas of unfinished recovery, not promised destinations. The 200-day is still much lower at 674.91, so the longer-term picture and the immediate selloff need to stay separate.
Cleveland-Cliffs: reported earnings and the next-quarter outlook
Cleveland-Cliffs gives us a different kind of setup because we have actual new results. The company reported third-quarter adjusted EBITDA of 612 million dollars. That compares with 286 million in the second quarter and its own previous guidance of about 575 million. This is a comparison with management's earlier outlook, not an analyst-consensus beat claim.
Revenue was about 5.61 billion dollars. GAAP diluted earnings were 26 cents a share, while adjusted earnings were 28 cents. Management now expects about 715 million dollars of adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter. That last figure is an outlook, and the company still has to deliver it.
The stock was around 13.81 in our premarket observation, versus Friday's 12.12 close. That is a gain of almost fourteen percent. It puts the early price above the recent October ninth high of 13.22, making that dated high a useful test of whether the move can hold through the regular session.
The 50-day average is 12.01 and the 200-day is 11.33. Both sit well below the early price, which also shows how far the stock has already moved before the open. If it loses the recent high and gives back the earnings move, that would weaken the breakout case. A strong opening print alone will not establish a successful daily retest.
Netflix: earnings ahead and the larger drawdown
Netflix reports after the close on Tuesday, October twentieth. It was little changed near 70.51 before the open, compared with Friday's 70.53 close. Price is sitting close to its 20-day average at 70.32, but remains below the 50-day at 75.09 and the 200-day at 82.88.
Friday's low at 69.76 is the nearby reference if that balance breaks down. Above, Friday's 71.90 high is an initial recovery test, before the larger overhead area near the 50-day. The broader history is still weak: the decline from the June 2025 closing peak to the October second, 2026 closing low was roughly fifty percent. Friday's close was only about five percent above that low. A small recovery should not hide the larger drawdown, and this week's report can change the setup substantially.
Tesla: earnings ahead of a daily reclaim test
Tesla reports after the close on Wednesday, October twenty-first. Its early observation was around 353.38, a little below Friday's 354.72 close. The stock remains beneath its 50-day average at 359.46, its 20-day at 370.33, and its 200-day at 387.99.
The nearest improvement would be a daily recovery of the 50-day, with a successful daily retest and close above it. Friday's 349.33 intraday low is the nearby failure reference. Beyond the first recovery level, the 20-day and Friday's 370.50 high form another area to examine. Earnings are still ahead, so those levels describe the chart we have rather than predict the report's outcome.
For today, the main question is whether the early index rebound can recover broken daily levels, while Cleveland-Cliffs holds its move after actual earnings. Netflix and Tesla still have their major company catalysts ahead of them.
You can find the charts and written research on YieldTerminal Pro, with the daily videos on our YouTube channel. And remember, this is market research only, not a recommendation to buy or sell. Have a good morning.
Sources
Tesla Q3 production, deliveries and results schedule
Daily historical prices: Yahoo Finance. Separately observed premarket prices and dated regular-session closes: Nasdaq. Averages and historical returns independently calculated from saved source data.