The stock selloff broadened; the bond snapshots did not echo it
Last week, the smaller AI-infrastructure stocks sold off while several megacaps rose. This week, all eight stocks in the same watch group fell. CoreWeave and Nebius each lost about a quarter of their value, while IREN fell 23.30%. QQQ declined 5.52%.
The eight bonds tell a different, narrower story. Every selected Meta, Alphabet and Amazon note had a higher October 16 last reported trade price than its October 9 observation, with lower reported yields. That is evidence about these securities, not proof that AI financing risks have disappeared.
This is the next dated edition of AI Debt — October 9. The original basket remains unchanged: four Meta notes, two Alphabet and two Amazon.
The same eight bonds
All eight latest trade dates were October 16, 2026. Prices below are per $100 face value. The change column subtracts two last reported trade prices; it is not a weekly bond return or an official closing-price comparison. Trade sizes and execution terms can differ, and coupons are not included.
| Issuer | CUSIP | Coupon | Maturity | Oct. 9 | Oct. 16 | Change / $100 | Reported yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meta | 30303M8X3 | 5.5% | 2045-11-15 | 83.34 | 83.72 | +0.38 | 7.07% |
| Meta | 30303MAJ1 | 6.2% | 2046-05-15 | 90.56 | 90.89 | +0.33 | 7.07% |
| Meta | 30303M8Y1 | 5.75% | 2065-11-15 | 77.90 | 78.67 | +0.77 | 7.43% |
| Meta | 30303MAL6 | 6.45% | 2066-05-15 | 86.91 | 87.19 | +0.28 | 7.46% |
| Alphabet | 02079KBP1 | 5.65% | 2056-02-15 | 87.48 | 88.53 | +1.05 | 6.53% |
| Alphabet | 02079KCU9 | 6.375% | 2056-08-15 | 96.47 | 97.74 | +1.27 | 6.55% |
| Amazon | 023135DH6 | 5.8% | 2056-03-13 | 87.87 | 89.08 | +1.21 | 6.65% |
| Amazon | 023135EG7 | 6.1% | 2056-07-09 | 91.49 | 93.17 | +1.68 | 6.63% |
The largest increase was Amazon's 6.10% note due July 2056: 91.49 to 93.17, up 1.68 points per $100. Its reported yield declined from about 6.77% to 6.63%. The smallest price increase was the Meta 6.45% note due 2066, up 0.28 points.
The two longest Meta notes still show reported yields around 7.43% and 7.46%. Their long maturities matter: these are not interchangeable with the 2045–2046 Meta pair. All eight prices remain below par, but a discount alone does not establish distress. Coupon, maturity, interest rates and credit pricing all affect a bond's market price.
Stocks: none of the eight finished the week higher
Completed regular-session closes; price changes exclude dividends. The watch group is unchanged.
| Company | Oct. 9 close | Oct. 16 close | Weekly price change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Microsoft (MSFT) | $535.07 | $529.05 | -1.13% |
| Meta (META) | $718.67 | $709.33 | -1.30% |
| Alphabet (GOOGL) | $351.66 | $340.59 | -3.15% |
| Amazon (AMZN) | $262.43 | $250.00 | -4.74% |
| Oracle (ORCL) | $141.40 | $128.23 | -9.31% |
| IREN (IREN) | $35.19 | $26.99 | -23.30% |
| Nebius (NBIS) | $221.07 | $165.47 | -25.15% |
| CoreWeave (CRWV) | $82.08 | $61.39 | -25.21% |
| Nasdaq-100 ETF (QQQ) | $751.27 | $709.80 | -5.52% |
Microsoft and Meta declined roughly 1%, while Amazon and Alphabet also finished lower. Oracle fell 9.31%, more than QQQ's 5.52% decline. The sharpest losses again came from CoreWeave, Nebius and IREN.
That distinction matters. The bond basket contains Meta, Alphabet and Amazon, not the debt of every stock in the equity table. We cannot use a firmer Amazon bond to conclude that CoreWeave's financing has become safer. Nor does a falling share price, by itself, measure an issuer's probability of default.
For a closer look at the separate security and funding questions, see our CoreWeave stock-versus-bond review. The comparison keeps debt terms, capital spending and the residual claim held by common shareholders separate.
The rates backdrop ends a day earlier
The latest official Federal Reserve H.15 observation available for this edition is October 15: 5.10% for the 10-year Treasury, compared with 5.24% on October 9, a decline of 14 basis points.
That October 15 Treasury observation is distinct from the October 16 corporate-bond trade dates and stock closes. We have not calculated a corporate credit-spread change by subtracting this 10-year rate from bonds with different maturities and different observation dates. A lower Treasury yield can support bond prices; it does not tell us how much of any individual trade-price change came from rates or credit.
Official Federal Reserve H.15 release
New issuance: the original basket stays intact
The recent SEC issuer submission indexes for Meta, Alphabet and Amazon were checked for October 9–16. The returned filings were ownership forms; no offering documents appeared in those three issuer indexes during the reviewed window.
This is a scoped check of these issuers' indexes, not a claim that no subsidiary, other AI company or private borrower raised debt anywhere. No newly verified issue has been added to this basket.
What changes the picture next?
Keep following the same securities. For the bonds, watch the dated trade prices and reported yields alongside maturity and financing terms. For the companies, watch whether new capacity produces cash after the spending required to build and maintain it.
This week's observed split is specific: all eight tracked equities fell, while the eight selected megacap bonds had firmer last-trade prices. It does not settle the long-term business case, but it gives us a better starting point than treating the entire AI trade as one position.
Previous edition · Original study · AI Debt series · Daily Levels
Market research only, not a recommendation to buy or sell.