October 20 After Close
Good evening, everyone. The market finished with a split decision. SPY recovered an important short-term level, while QQQ stayed below their fifty-day average. And after the bell, Netflix and SpaceX gave us two very different earnings stories. Tonight, the test is whether improving reported profits are matched by the outlook and the cash required to deliver it.
SPY: the fifty-day reclaim
Completed regular close: $769.32; change: +0.37%. 20-day SMA: $770.63; 50-day SMA: $768.29; 200-day SMA: $725.87.
Start with SPY. It closed around seven hundred sixty-nine dollars, up about four-tenths of a percent. This morning, it was below Monday's low. It recovered that level and finished above the fifty-day average near seven hundred sixty-eight. But it did not finish above the twenty-day average near seven hundred seventy-one. That leaves a recovery in progress. A daily retest and close above the reclaimed area would strengthen it; losing that area again would weaken it. Friday's low near seven hundred sixty-one remains a separate reference below.
QQQ: recovery remains incomplete
Completed regular close: $717.63; change: -0.10%. 20-day SMA: $739.87; 50-day SMA: $726.62; 200-day SMA: $675.95.
QQQ closed around seven hundred eighteen dollars, down about one-tenth of a percent. They recovered Monday's low, but remained below the recent highs around seven hundred twenty-five to seven hundred twenty-six and the fifty-day average near seven hundred twenty-seven. The earlier closing decline from October sixth to October sixteenth was about six-point-six percent. The rebound from that low is only about one percent. Keep both moves on the chart. A small rebound has not repaired the full decline.
Netflix: stronger results, lower forecasts
Completed regular close: $68.69; change: -1.66%. 20-day SMA: $69.97; 50-day SMA: $74.85; 200-day SMA: $82.65.
Netflix closed around sixty-nine dollars, down about one-point-seven percent, before its results were released. It failed to hold the area near seventy we discussed this morning and remained below its fifty-day average near seventy-five. The longer chart shows an approximately fifty-percent closing decline from June thirtieth last year to October second this year. The separate rebound from that low is now about two-and-a-half percent. Tonight's after-hours trading is separate from that completed daily candle.
The actual quarter was stronger. Revenue grew about twelve percent to twelve-point-nine billion dollars. Diluted earnings were eighty-seven cents a share, compared with fifty-nine cents a year earlier, and operating margin reached thirty-four-point-six percent. But Netflix said part of its margin performance versus its own forecast came from expense timing. That is different from an independently verified beat against analyst estimates.
The outlook makes this more complicated. Netflix reduced its full-year advertising revenue forecast from about three billion dollars to two-point-seven billion. Its free-cash-flow forecast fell from twelve-point-five billion to about twelve billion, primarily because of an expected fourth-quarter real-estate transaction. Quarterly free cash flow was still higher than a year ago. Stronger reported earnings and a lower cash forecast can both be true.
SpaceX: growth and the investment burden
SpaceX reported about fourteen-point-six billion dollars of quarterly revenue, up one hundred sixty-one percent. GAAP operating income was two-point-eight billion, while adjusted EBITDA was eight-point-eight billion. Those are different measures, and EBITDA is not cash flow. Connectivity revenue grew sixty-nine percent. The renamed Super Intelligence segment also expanded sharply, with cloud agreements and the Cursor acquisition contributing, so this is more than a rocket-launch story and the growth is not all organic.
The spending deserves equal attention. Quarterly capital expenditure was nineteen-point-six billion dollars, mainly in Super Intelligence. The cash-flow statement covers nine months, so I am keeping that separate from quarterly spending. The question is whether the expanded businesses can generate enough durable cash to support that investment. A large revenue increase alone does not answer it.
SpaceX finished the regular session around one hundred forty-eight dollars, just below its fifty-day average near one hundred forty-nine. It has only ninety trading sessions, so there is no two-hundred-day average yet. In the separate after-hours snapshot, SpaceX was around one hundred fifty-one dollars, about two-point-four percent above its close. Netflix was around sixty-six dollars, about three-point-three percent below its close. These are snapshots that can change, not completed daily candles or proof of which part of either report drove the move.
SPCX completed close: $147.79; 20-day SMA: $154.70; 50-day SMA: $148.62. Only 90 actual post-IPO sessions are available, so a 200-day SMA is unavailable. Separate after-hours observations: SPCX $151.30 (+2.37% versus its regular close); NFLX $66.42 (-3.30%). These are dated observations, not continuously live prices or completed daily candles.
Tesla: earnings still ahead
Completed regular close: $373.71; change: +1.54%. 20-day SMA: $369.71; 50-day SMA: $361.11; 200-day SMA: $387.26.
Tesla closed around three hundred seventy-four dollars, up about one-and-a-half percent. That put it above both the twenty-day average near three hundred seventy and the fifty-day near three hundred sixty-one, while the two-hundred-day near three hundred eighty-seven remained overhead. Its earnings are still tomorrow's event. A daily retest and close above the reclaimed area would be more useful confirmation than treating today's move as a completed recovery.
GE: the daily gap
Completed regular close: $299.92; change: -3.65%. 20-day SMA: $311.53; 50-day SMA: $327.93; 200-day SMA: $323.74.
GE went the other way. It closed around three hundred dollars, down about three-point-six percent, and below all three moving averages. The session left a daily gap between roughly three hundred seven and three hundred eleven dollars. Those are dated traded-range references, not an invented wall of orders. A reclaim would improve the picture; today's low near two hundred ninety-four is the next downside reference. Its reported results and the stock's reaction need to be assessed separately.
Qualifying-watchlist movers
Now the leaders and laggards within our qualifying watchlist, not the entire stock market. These are completed regular-session moves for U.S.-listed stocks and depositary receipts above five billion dollars in source-reported market value.
The observed list contained 275 symbols. Rankings cover all 201 qualifying US exchange-listed stocks/ADRs with source-reported market capitalization strictly above $5 billion. Feed-based capitalization is an observation, not an independently reconstructed closing market cap. Missing and excluded instruments remain in the private source evidence. All 201 completed closing prices were verified; four provider inconsistencies were resolved and retained. Three nonleader instruments with invalid intraday O/L ranges were excluded from plotting; none of the ten mover charts uses those invalid candles. Rankings use raw returns; visible values are rounded to two decimal places.
MRNA: Top 5 Up #1
Moderna, Inc. closed at $242.08, +6.69%, above its 50-day SMA of $161.93. It finished above its 200-day SMA of $79.44.
BMNR: Top 5 Up #2
BitMine Immersion Technologies Inc closed at $22.82, +5.80%, below its 50-day SMA of $23.97. It finished above its 200-day SMA of $21.32.
CRCL: Top 5 Up #3
Circle Internet Group, Inc. Class A closed at $85.97, +5.65%, below its 50-day SMA of $86.07. It finished below its 200-day SMA of $86.10.
FIG: Top 5 Up #4
Figma, Inc. Class A closed at $22.70, +5.39%, below its 50-day SMA of $23.76. It finished below its 200-day SMA of $23.60.
MDB: Top 5 Up #5
MongoDB, Inc. Class A closed at $366.18, +5.02%, below its 50-day SMA of $393.01. It finished above its 200-day SMA of $339.21.
MXL: Top 5 Down #1
MaxLinear, Inc. closed at $73.51, -4.67%, below its 50-day SMA of $77.87. It finished above its 200-day SMA of $57.90.
SMTC: Top 5 Down #2
Semtech Corporation closed at $136.20, -4.23%, below its 50-day SMA of $156.95. It finished above its 200-day SMA of $122.57.
FPS: Top 5 Down #3
Forgent Power Solutions, Inc. Class A closed at $30.20, -4.19%, below its 50-day SMA of $35.02. Insufficient actual trading history for a 200-day SMA.
IREN: Top 5 Down #4
IREN Limited closed at $26.62, -4.00%, below its 50-day SMA of $40.48. It finished below its 200-day SMA of $45.24.
GE: Top 5 Down #5
GE Aerospace closed at $299.92, -3.65%, below its 50-day SMA of $327.93. It finished below its 200-day SMA of $323.74.
What matters next
Across these charts, recovery is uneven. SPY reclaimed its fifty-day average, QQQ did not, and tonight's reports add new information that tomorrow's regular session will have to absorb. Watch the daily closes and the cash behind the earnings, rather than assuming the first after-hours move settles the question.
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And remember, this is market research only, not a recommendation to buy or sell.