October delivered a split result. From the completed September 30 regular-session close to the completed October 30 close, QQQ lost 6.66%, while SPY slipped 0.91% and IWM gained 0.52%. Nine of the 11 tracked sector ETFs rose. Energy led at 13.85%; communication services and technology were the two decliners. These are price returns, not total returns. They describe the month without proving why any asset moved.
Three index funds, three October paths
| Fund | September 30 close | October 30 close | Price return |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $762.63 | $755.72 | −0.91% |
| QQQ | $739.77 | $690.49 | −6.66% |
| IWM | $277.89 | $279.33 | +0.52% |
SPY's relatively small close-to-close decline contrasts with QQQ's larger loss. The October 30 SPY low of $750.36 is an intraday extreme, while $762.63 is the September 30 closing reference. A future daily close below the first would be different evidence from an intraday touch. A daily close above the second would put SPY above its starting close for this comparison window. Neither condition is a forecast.
QQQ closed October at $690.49, far below its $739.77 September 30 close. Its October 30 intraday low, $683.45, was the lowest price in the captured October trading window. On the saved Yahoo daily chart, October 30 also had QQQ's heaviest share-volume bar among the 22 October sessions. A future daily close below that low would put QQQ below October's trading low. A daily close back above $739.77 would erase the measured close-to-close October price decline.
IWM finished slightly above its September 30 close, rising 0.52%. Its positive result is another reason to describe the period as a split market rather than a uniform decline.
Nine sectors rose, two fell
Energy (XLE) rose 13.85%. Consumer staples (XLP) gained 10.94%, and utilities (XLU) gained 10.12%. Communication services (XLC) lost 9.98%, while technology (XLK) lost 8.30%. Six other sector ETFs finished positive, leaving nine of 11 above their September 30 closes. That spread shows how much the QQQ decline differed from many sector funds; it does not establish fund flows or a single cause.
Oil has a different endpoint
The latest available EIA daily spot observation in the frozen source is October 27. Cushing WTI rose from $97.18 per barrel on September 30 to $103.37 on October 27, a 6.37% change through October 27. Brent spot rose from $115.91 to $123.10 over that same dated interval, a 6.20% change through October 27. EIA's October 28–30 spot cells are blank in the captured release. These numbers are not month-end oil spot returns.
Unlike the EIA spot series, XLE has a complete September 30–October 30 closing window. Its 13.85% price gain ended near the October 30 session high of $70.15. A future daily close outside the October 30 range would give a clearer dated test than an intraday move through either boundary.
Exxon Mobil (XOM) rose from $162.75 to $187.25, up 15.05%. It touched its October intraday high of $188.50 on October 30, then closed below that mark.
Chevron (CVX) moved from $204.21 to $235.52, up 15.33%. It touched its October intraday high of $236.46 on October 30 and closed just below it.
ConocoPhillips (COP) rose from $125.15 to $154.03, up 23.08%. Its October 30 intraday high was $154.28, and its final close finished just below that level.
Occidental Petroleum (OXY) advanced from $55.32 to $64.00, up 15.69%. Its October intraday high was $64.96 on October 23; the October 30 close was 1.48% below that mark.
These are share-price changes over the full September 30–October 30 close window. Oil-company shares and oil spot prices are different instruments with different drivers; the two measurement windows must remain separate.
What the October releases actually measured
The September employment report, released October 2, reported 29,000 additional nonfarm payroll jobs and a 4.2% unemployment rate. September CPI, released October 14, rose 0.6% from August on a seasonally adjusted basis and 3.7% from a year earlier. These are September reference-period data released during October, not October employment or October CPI.
The advance estimate for third-quarter real GDP, released October 29, showed 3.4% growth at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, compared with 2.2% in the second quarter. The reference quarter ended in September. The October 28 Federal Reserve statement held the federal funds target range at 3.75%–4.00% by a 10–2 vote; the two dissenters preferred a quarter-point increase. The releases provide dated context. Their timing alone does not establish a cause for any October ETF or stock return.
A dated checklist for November
The October 30 intraday lows at $750.36 for SPY and $683.45 for QQQ are downside references, while their September 30 closes at $762.63 and $739.77 mark the starting points for this review's return calculation. XLE's October 30 intraday range was $69.28–$70.15. The next useful test is a daily close beyond a cited boundary, followed by a fresh check of the completed session. A touch during the day is not a confirmed daily retest and close.
See the October 30 Daily Levels charts for the ticker-specific references and the Movers archive for the separate daily watchlist rankings. This article is a dated research snapshot. It does not update with live quotes. And remember, this is market research only, not a recommendation to buy or sell.
Sources and method
- Completed September 30 and October 30 Yahoo Finance daily OHLCV, including volume and adjustment-event checks. September 30 closes match Nasdaq historical; October 30 completed daily closes match separately captured CNBC dated regular-session quote values to the cent. CNBC is a quote cache, not proof of a listing venue's official closing auction print.
- EIA Cushing WTI spot history and EIA Brent spot history. Latest captured spot observation: October 27.
- Public daily-price history pages for the three index funds: SPY, QQQ, and IWM. Select the September 30–October 30 completed-session window.
- BLS September employment report, BLS September CPI report, BEA third-quarter GDP advance estimate, and Federal Reserve October 28 statement.
All displayed prices are in U.S. dollars with two decimals. Fund and stock returns are close-to-close price returns from September 30 to October 30, 2026, excluding distributions and not annualized. EIA spot changes have the distinct September 30–October 27 endpoint stated above.