Fed Decision Day: What the Second Close Shows
The October 28 Morning Watch is a recorded premarket guide. Its October 28 price markers are separate observations, not candles or completed closes. The daily charts and independently calculated averages use completed October 27 U.S. regular-session bars. The scheduled Census release and Federal Reserve decision had not occurred when the premarket snapshot was recorded.
SPY: holding the 50-day
SPY closed October 27 at $769.66, above its 50-day average of $767.53 and its 200-day average of $727.76. The recorded October 28 premarket print was $771.00. October 6's $781.62 intraday high is an overhead reference; October 23's $758.68 intraday low is a downside reference. Tuesday share volume was well below its previous 20-session average. A daily hold above the 50-day, then a daily retest and close above, would strengthen the recovery; a close below would weaken it.
QQQ: a daily reclaim still needed
QQQ closed October 27 at $721.25, below its 50-day average of $725.26 and above its 200-day average of $678.23. The recorded premarket print was $724.68, just below the 50-day. A premarket touch cannot confirm a daily reclaim. Tuesday's $713.59 intraday low and October 23's $701.16 intraday low are dated downside references; October 6's $762.86 intraday high shows the earlier decline still unrepaired. A daily close above the 50-day followed by a daily retest and close above would strengthen the setup.
IWM: between two averages
IWM closed October 27 at $280.18 and recorded a $279.68 premarket print. The 50-day average at $285.37 remains overhead, while the 200-day at $278.43 is just below the completed close. A daily close over the 50-day would improve the near-term chart; a daily close below the 200-day would weaken it. ETF share volume is trading in IWM, not a measure of breadth across every Russell 2000 constituent.
Robinhood: earnings and a separate price test
Robinhood reported Q3 net revenue of $1.42 billion, up 12% year over year. Crypto transaction revenue declined 55%. GAAP diluted EPS was $0.51 and the company introduced adjusted EPS of $0.60 this quarter; the measures are distinct. Its recorded premarket price was $87.50, versus the completed Tuesday close of $94.56.
The early print was below the October 26 intraday low of $91.63 and the 200-day average of $93.04. A daily reclaim would repair the immediate chart; the 50-day near $108.78 remains further overhead. Price alone does not identify which part of the report investors weighed most. Robinhood Q3 release.
Visa: the early break versus the broader trend
Visa's fiscal Q4 net revenue was $12.10 billion, up 13%, and cross-border volume grew 14%. GAAP EPS was $3.19 and non-GAAP EPS was $3.48. Its recorded premarket price was $394.00, below Tuesday's $401.86 close and the $397.36 intraday low.
A daily reclaim of Tuesday's low would show the early break did not hold. The 50-day average of $378.73 remains below the completed close; Tuesday's share volume was above its prior 20-session average. One premarket move is not a verdict on the quarter. Visa fiscal Q4 release.
Seagate: guidance with averages overhead
Seagate reported fiscal Q1 revenue of about $4.20 billion and company-defined non-GAAP free cash flow of about $1.50 billion. Its fiscal Q2 outlook calls for revenue of $4.80 billion, plus or minus $0.10 billion, and non-GAAP EPS of $9.20, plus or minus $0.20. These are forecasts, not reported results.
The recorded premarket print was $654.59, below the completed Tuesday close of $667.85. Tuesday's completed regular-session intraday low was $647.94. A daily close back above Tuesday's close would show a stronger response. The 200-day average of $687.14 and 50-day of $809.96 remain overhead. Reported share-volume totals differ between providers, so this review makes no precise relative-volume claim. Seagate fiscal Q1 release.
Twenty-four scheduled Fed decisions: the first close and the next
The study covers all 24 scheduled decisions from November 2023 through September 2026, excluding today's pending decision. It calculates each ETF's unadjusted regular-session close-to-close return on the decision day and separately the next session's close-to-close return. These full-session changes also reflect trading before the announcement, other news, distributions and overnight moves. They do not isolate the policy announcement's effect or forecast today's return. Official FOMC calendar.
SPY closed higher on 10 decision days and lower on 14; QQQ was higher on 14 and lower on 10. The median decision-day move was nearly flat for SPY and about +0.23% for QQQ. The median absolute move was about 0.72% for SPY and 0.87% for QQQ. On the following session, SPY was higher in 16 cases and QQQ in 14. The direction flipped between the first and second close in 12 SPY cases and 14 QQQ cases. These are sample counts, not odds for October 28.
On July 31, 2024, the Fed held its target range. QQQ gained 2.96% on the decision day, then lost 2.42% the next session, leaving a two-session gain of about 0.47%. SPY also reversed direction with smaller moves.
On September 18, 2024, the Fed cut its target range by half a percentage point. Both ETFs finished the decision day slightly lower, then SPY gained 1.71% and QQQ 2.53% the following session. The full-session paths cannot be attributed to the rate decision alone. Fed statement.
On December 18, 2024, the Fed cut a quarter point. SPY fell 2.98% and QQQ 3.61% on the decision day. QQQ's two-session return was -4.04%, the largest two-session QQQ decline in this 24-meeting sample. Fed statement.
On July 29, 2026, the Fed held its target range. SPY closed down 1.54% and QQQ down 2.04%; the following session QQQ rose 3.30% and finished above its pre-decision close. A red first close did not settle the two-session result. Fed statement.
What confirms the current setups
Today's chart plan remains conditional: SPY holding and retesting its 50-day, QQQ reclaiming its 50-day on a completed daily close and then retesting it, and IWM's position between its 50- and 200-day averages. The earnings names have separate dated levels. No past Fed meeting return supplies a target for them.
Market data sources: completed daily OHLCV and separately recorded October 28 premarket quotes. The prices above come from an early October 28 recorded premarket snapshot. Later prints can change; use the dated levels and completed closes rather than treating this page as a live quote feed. Daily OHLCV and moving averages end with the completed October 27 regular session. The estimated right-side volume profile on the charts is labeled and derives from a limited TradingView Cboe BATS sample; it is not a consolidated market-wide flow measure. Market research only, not a recommendation to buy or sell.
Watch the October 28 Morning Watch video · Browse Daily Levels.