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Versus · Payments and financial services

American Express vs Visa: Earnings Quality Before the Next Print

AXP

$AXP

American Express

vs
V

$V

Visa

How does American Express's September earnings quality compare with Visa's differently dated network result before Visa reports again?

AXP's September quarter includes an investment gain; Visa's latest published June quarter is a separate network scorecard.

Figures October 25 weekend research | completed U.S.-listed share history through October 23; AXP September and Visa June reports are not synchronized. Published Oct 25, 2026. Educational commentary, not investment advice.

In short

  • •American Express's $5.42 GAAP EPS includes a sale gain; its company-adjusted, non-GAAP measure was $4.68 after the gain and restructuring bridge.
  • •Visa's latest reported June quarter had $11.633 billion of net revenue, 71.7 billion processed transactions and 10% constant-dollar payments-volume growth.
  • •The completed October 23 AXP and Visa share charts use the same date, but their business reporting periods and models differ.

Side by side

Metric$AXP$V
Latest reported GAAP EPSDifferent periods, earnings models and capital structures; raw EPS is not a ranking.$5.42 | AXP Sep quarter$2.97 | Visa Jun quarter
Company non-GAAP EPSEach issuer defines its own non-GAAP measure; no direct normalized comparison.$4.68 adjusted | gain/restructuring bridge$3.32 non-GAAP | Visa Jun quarter
Operating modelDifferent credit exposure and revenue recognition; Visa's September result is scheduled for October 27.Card issuer, lender and network; credit provision about $1.0BPayments network; 71.7B processed transactions

Highlighted cells mark the side each line favours. $AXP leads 0, $V leads 0, and 3 favour neither. This is not a score, and the side leading more lines is not the better investment.

American Express and Visa both benefit from payment activity, but they are not the same business. American Express issues cards, lends to customers and runs a network; Visa is a payments network with a different credit-risk profile. Their latest available reports also have different dates: American Express reported its September 2026 quarter on October 23, while Visa's latest published result is its June 2026 fiscal third quarter. Visa has scheduled its September-quarter release for October 27. This is a comparison of separately dated evidence, not a claim that one company's September results can already be matched against Visa's.

The American Express earnings bridge

American Express reported $20.062 billion of revenue net of interest expense in its September quarter, versus $18.426 billion a year earlier, and $454.0 billion of billed business. GAAP diluted earnings per share were $5.42. The company's non-GAAP adjusted EPS was $4.68: remove $1.11 per share of after-tax gain from the sale of its Global Business Travel Group interest, then add back $0.37 per share of after-tax restructuring expense. That bridge is $5.42 - $1.11 + $0.37 = $4.68. Calling $5.42 the recurring earnings run-rate would ignore the gain.

American Express September 2026 GAAP EPS reconciled to company-adjusted non-GAAP EPS after the GBTG sale gain and restructuring item.

American Express September-quarter issuer exhibit

The issuer-and-lender model brings both card spending and credit costs into view. American Express reported about $1.0 billion of provision for credit losses in the quarter. Visa's network economics should not be compared to that provision as though it carried the same loan book.

Visa's older network scorecard

Visa reported $11.633 billion of net revenue and 71.7 billion processed transactions for its quarter ended June 30, 2026. Payments volume grew 10% year over year on a constant-dollar basis. Visa reported $2.97 of GAAP EPS and $3.32 of non-GAAP EPS, with its own reconciliation. Neither figure is synchronized with American Express's September-quarter EPS. Raw revenue amounts also reflect different business models; a simple higher-versus-lower ranking would not answer which company has a better return on investor capital.

American Express September issuer/lender metrics beside Visa's older June network metrics; payments-volume growth is constant-dollar.

Visa fiscal third-quarter results | Visa's October 27 result-date announcement

Visa's next published quarter will provide a more current network comparison. Until then, the fair test is whether American Express's underlying growth after the investment gain and credit provision holds up, and whether Visa's transaction and service economics remain durable. It is premature to describe an unreported Visa quarter as an actual result.

Completed share-price evidence is a separate test

American Express closed October 23 at $313.22 on two agreeing daily-history sources. Nasdaq's dated regular-close field was two cents lower; that difference is disclosed rather than silently averaged. Its 20-, 50- and 200-day averages were $310.12, $319.19 and $327.30. The close sat above the shorter average but below the 50- and 200-day levels. Friday's exact intraday low differs among sources, so it is not used as a precision support line.

American Express completed October 23 daily close and independently calculated 20-, 50- and 200-day moving averages.

Visa closed at $407.92 on two agreeing daily-history sources. Nasdaq's dated regular close rounds to $408.00, eight cents higher at public two-decimal precision. Its 20-, 50- and 200-day averages were $385.26, $377.07 and $340.56. Visa remained above all three after Friday's decline. Its corroborated Friday low of $406.80 is a dated observation, not a buy level or a price target.

Visa completed October 23 daily close and independently calculated 20-, 50- and 200-day moving averages.

Over a matched 75-session U.S.-listed closing-price window ending October 23, American Express declined 10.66% and Visa gained 16.89%, excluding dividends. This is price-only performance, not a synchronized earnings comparison or a calculation of total shareholder return.

American Express and Visa price-only returns over 75 matched U.S. sessions through October 23, indexed to the same starting close.

For American Express, a chart repair would require a daily reclaim, retest and close above its 50-day average near $319.19, then the longer average near $327.30. Visa's first nearer test is whether completed daily closes continue to hold above the 20-day average near $385.26. Neither chart can substitute for Visa's coming report or for American Express's credit-performance detail.

Completed AXP history | Completed Visa history | American Express charts | Visa charts | More comparisons

Market research only, not a recommendation to buy or sell.

What the gap is pricing

American Express needs to demonstrate durable underlying earnings and credit quality after the gain. Visa's October 27 report is the next current network test; the dated share paths do not decide a business-model winner.

This says what the market is charging for, not what anyone should buy. No position is implied.

Sources

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