The trade
Meta Platforms ($META) had never sold a bond before August 2022. When it did, the longest tranche was the 4.650% of 15 August 2062, CUSIP 30303M8K1.
This page follows $10,000 into that bond at issue against $10,000 into Meta stock the same day, and then repeats the exercise from 31 December 2025 to see whether the answer depends on when you bought.
Both legs on one date, and here it mattered enormously
Both legs are marked Friday 25 September 2026.
This is the piece where that discipline earned its keep. An earlier mark of 31 July caught $META two days after an 8% earnings drop, and on that date the bond was beating the stock year to date. The stock then rallied 35%. Mixing a July bond mark with a September stock mark would have produced the single worst error available in this comparison, and every individual number in it would still have been true.
The result, two entry dates
| Bought at the bond's issue, 9 Aug 2022 | Bond | Stock |
|---|---|---|
| $10,000 becomes | about $8,700 | about $44,900 |
| Total return | about -13.0% | about +349% |
| Bought 31 Dec 2025 | Bond | Stock |
|---|---|---|
| $10,000 becomes | about $8,740 | about $11,400 |
| Total return | about -12.6% | about +14.0% |
The stock won both times. On the issue-date entry it won five times over.
The difference from McDonald's
Both bonds fell. The causes are not the same, and that is the reason to read these two pages together.
McDonald's bond was destroyed by the Treasury long end while its own credit spread tightened by about 200 basis points. The issuer got safer and the bond still collapsed.
Meta's bond fell with its spread widening, and in 2026 the spread did more of the damage than Treasuries did. Part of Meta's bond loss genuinely is the market demanding more to lend to Meta.
So two long corporate bonds, two similar-looking price declines, two opposite explanations. A falling bond price by itself does not tell you which one you are holding.
What this does not say
It does not say Meta's credit is bad, only that its risk premium rose over this window while McDonald's fell. It does not forecast either security. And it rests on the entry dates shown: elsewhere in this series a different mark date has reversed a result outright.
