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Walmart vs Costco: Growth, Membership and the Cash Left Over

WMT

$WMT

Walmart

vs
COST

$COST

Costco

Which operating evidence supports the expectations in each share price?

Walmart and Costco both sell value to households, but shareholders own different profit engines.

Figures October 22 research edition | completed prices through October 21; separate recorded October 22 regular-session observations; financial periods differ. Published Oct 22, 2026. Educational commentary, not investment advice.

In short

  • •Those periods are not identical.
  • •Both latest quarterly releases identify benefits from tariff refunds.
  • •This is a price-return comparison excluding dividends, not a total-return portfolio calculation.

Side by side

Metric$WMT$COST
October 21 completed regular closeShare-count bases differ; a lower share price is not a lower valuation.$117.80$998.31
April 21 to October 21 price return128 identical completed dates; dividends excluded. Not a valuation ranking.-9.10%-0.75%

Highlighted cells mark the side each line favours. $WMT leads 0, $COST leads 0, and 2 favour neither. This is not a score, and the side leading more lines is not the better investment.

Walmart and Costco both sell value to households, but shareholders own different profit engines. Walmart combines stores, delivery, marketplace and advertising with its membership businesses. Costco pairs a warehouse model with paid membership. The question is which operating evidence supports the expectations in each share price—not which retailer posts the bigger raw revenue number.

Start with the periods, then compare growth

Walmart's latest reported quarter ended July 31, 2026, in fiscal 2027. Costco's fourth quarter covered 16 weeks ended August 30, 2026, in fiscal 2026. Those periods are not identical. Year-over-year growth within each company's own period is more useful than presenting the two revenue totals as a matched-quarter contest.

Walmart reported $187.9 billion of quarterly revenue, up 5.9%, and $0.80 of GAAP diluted EPS. Its $0.81 adjusted EPS uses a separate reconciliation. Costco reported $95.72 billion of total quarterly revenue, including membership fees, and $6.75 of diluted EPS. Absolute EPS levels cannot rank the businesses: their share counts and share-price bases differ.

Walmart and Costco reported-period growth and operating measures, with the different fiscal-quarter lengths explicitly labeled.

Walmart Q2 fiscal 2027 results · Costco Q4 fiscal 2026 results.

Revenue quality matters more than the headline

Walmart reported 23% global e-commerce growth and 38% growth in its global advertising business. Advertising can be recorded in net sales or as a reduction of cost of sales, depending on the arrangement. It should not simply be added to the revenue line as an extra business on top.

Costco's September update provides a later demand observation: sales rose 13.0% in the five weeks ended October 4. Companywide comparable sales rose 7.6% excluding gasoline-price and foreign-exchange effects. The company says the Labor Day timing shift added more than 50 basis points to total and comparable sales. This is a monthly sales report, not a new earnings, margin or cash-flow statement. It also uses a different definition and period from Walmart's U.S. quarterly comparable-sales measure.

Costco September sales update.

Membership fees improve the resilience question, but fee revenue is not automatically pure profit. Renewal behavior, service costs and the merchandise proposition all matter. Nor does a good membership model establish that its stock is attractive at every valuation.

Strip out the easy margin story

Both latest quarterly releases identify benefits from tariff refunds. Walmart says refunds benefited gross profit, partly offset by price investments. Costco identified a $0.15-per-share non-recurring quarterly benefit after partial reinvestment in member value. A comparison of reported earnings should retain those qualifications rather than attribute all improvement to repeatable retail execution.

The next test is whether sales growth continues converting into operating profit after those effects fade. For Walmart, fulfillment economics and the business mix matter. For Costco, membership economics and disciplined warehouse expansion matter. These are operating questions, not conclusions that can be settled by a single price multiple.

Cash after investment: two distinct reporting windows

Walmart reported $19.7 billion of operating cash flow and $5.5 billion of company-defined free cash flow for the first six months of its fiscal year. Those figures are year-to-date, not quarterly. Its investment bill means more operating cash does not automatically leave more free cash.

Costco's latest audited annual filing reports $15.817 billion of operating cash flow and $6.435 billion of additions to property and equipment for the 52-week year. Their arithmetic difference is $9.382 billion. That is our defined calculation, not a claim of a directly comparable company-defined free-cash-flow measure. It also supersedes the preliminary release's slightly different operating-cash figure.

Walmart six-month cash measures and Costco audited full-year cash measures, separated by reporting window and definition.

Costco audited fiscal 2026 annual filing.

We do not annualize Walmart's half-year cash or declare Costco the winner from these unequal windows. Inventory, supplier payments and seasonality can affect the comparison. Balance-sheet debt also needs lease definitions attached before drawing leverage conclusions.

Put both shares on the same market-data window

At the October 21 close, Walmart was $117.80, above its 20-session average of $110.92 and 50-session average of $109.24, but below the 200-session average of $118.35. The earlier recorded October 22 regular-session observation was $120.29, up 2.11%, placing it above all three completed averages and Wednesday's $118.16 intraday high. An intraday reclaim is evidence to monitor, not a completed daily confirmation.

Costco closed October 21 at $998.31, above the 20/50/200-session averages of $948.03/$936.66/$968.10. Its earlier recorded October 22 observation was $1,013.00, up 1.47%, above Wednesday's $1,000.25 intraday high. Both current-session marks are separate from the completed candles and can change after this recorded research snapshot.

The displayed October 22 prices are earlier recorded observations. A later check before publication still placed both stocks above all three completed averages and Wednesday's intraday highs; it does not turn the pictured prices into live quotes.

The rebound also needs its preceding decline. In the retained closing history, Walmart fell 23.52% from its May 19 peak to August 27 low, then rebounded 14.78% through October 21. Costco's May 19 peak-to-September 16 closing-low decline was 18.33%, followed by an 11.70% closing rebound. These do not mix intraday extremes with closing returns.

WMT: completed daily candles through October 21; close $117.80 and 20/50/200-session averages. Separate October 22 regular observation $120.29 (+2.11%); no current quote is inserted into the daily history.
COST: completed daily candles through October 21; close $998.31 and 20/50/200-session averages. Separate October 22 regular observation $1,013.00 (+1.47%); no current quote is inserted into the daily history.

Across the same April 21–October 21 closing-price window, Walmart fell 9.10%, Costco fell 0.75% and QQQ rose 12.55%. This is a price-return comparison excluding dividends, not a total-return portfolio calculation. The result shows relative share-price performance over that specific period; it does not establish future returns or a valuation bargain.

Matched April 21 to October 21 price-only comparison across 128 identical completed closes, rebased to100. WMT -9.10%, COST -0.75%, QQQ +12.55%. Dividends and October22 observations are excluded.

Our verdict: Walmart offers a broader mix of retail and newer revenue streams, while Costco offers a distinct membership-led model and a more recent monthly demand update. Costco had the stronger matched-period price performance. Neither observation establishes the better investment at today's price. A defensible choice still needs repeatable cash generation, a consistent valuation denominator and sustained price confirmation. A daily reclaim here requires a daily retest and a close above the relevant level, not an intraday touch.

Completed price history: Walmart · Costco · Nasdaq dated history

Walmart charts · Costco charts · More comparisons

Market research only, not a recommendation to buy or sell.

What the gap is pricing

Walmart offers a broader mix of retail and newer revenue streams, while Costco offers a distinct membership-led model and a more recent monthly demand update. Costco had the stronger matched-period price performance. Neither observation establishes the better investment at today's price. A defensible choice still needs repeatable cash generation, a consistent valuation denominator and sustained price confirmation. A daily reclaim here requires a daily retest and a close above the relevant level, not an intraday touch.

This says what the market is charging for, not what anyone should buy. No position is implied.

Sources

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