Day 9: $SOFI
SoFi closed Tuesday at 17.16, up 1.12%. That number hides the day. The stock opened at 17.925, up 5.6%, on the morning's stablecoin announcement, printed 17.96, and spent the rest of the session giving it back.
Volume was 97.9 million shares against a 44.6 million average, about 2.2x normal. Plenty of people showed up. The close was 4.5% below the open.
What was announced
From SoFi's own release, dated 2026-09-22:
- Stablecoin settlement is live across SoFi Bank, N.A.'s debit and credit card program, settling in SoFiUSD over Mastercard's global payments network.
- SoFi Bank is migrating its entire $25 billion card program to stablecoin settlement. The subhead frames it as "more than $25 billion in annualized volume."
- SoFiUSD is described as the first stablecoin issued by a nationally chartered bank, redeemable 1:1 for dollars, reserves "consisting primarily of cash."
- CEO Anthony Noto: "In six months, SoFi and Mastercard took stablecoin settlement from an idea to a live product."
- SoFi says it is in active discussions with large merchants across the US, and that cross-border payments and remittances are still to be explored.
Two dates matter here. The partnership was announced March 3, 2026. Tuesday was the go-live, not a new deal. And this is the second SoFiUSD headline this month: on 2026-09-03 SoFi and Payward (Kraken) announced that Payward would join SoFi's settlement network and list SoFiUSD.
The release also carries the disclosure that SoFiUSD is not a deposit, is not FDIC insured, and may lose value.
The levels the move ran into
The fib leg on the chart runs from the April 17 high at 20.13 to the July 29 low at 14.88, a 35% span with the anchors 70 sessions apart.
| Level | Price | Tuesday |
|---|---|---|
| 0.786 | 19.01 | |
| 0.618 | 18.12 | high stopped 16 cents short at 17.96 |
| 0.5 | 17.50 | opened above it, closed below |
| 0.382 | 16.89 | held |
| 0.236 | 16.12 |
The four daily moving averages sit at 20-day 17.69, 50-day 17.66, 100-day 17.28 and 200-day 19.39. The 17.96 high cleared the first three intraday. The 17.16 close is back under all four.
The pattern the business keeps making
Q2 2026, reported July 29 (8-K accession 0001818874-26-000050):
| Q2 2026 | Change | |
|---|---|---|
| GAAP net revenue | $1.219B | +43% |
| Adjusted net revenue | $1.206B | +40% |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $357.8M | +44% |
| GAAP net income | $156.6M | +61% |
| Members | 15.8M | +35% |
| Products | 24.4M | +42% |
Record revenue, record members, record products, record originations of $14.8B, and tangible book value per share up 56% year over year to $7.34.
The stock fell 8.9% that day and traded 14.88, its 52-week low.
The same thing happened in April. Q1 2026, reported April 29, was also a record quarter (adjusted revenue +41%, members +35%). The stock fell 15.4% that day. Those two sessions are the two highest-volume days of the past year.
The detail inside the July guidance
This is the part worth keeping. In the same release, management raised the full-year adjusted net revenue outlook to $4.75-4.85 billion. And then:
"Management continues to expect adjusted EBITDA of approximately $1.6 billion... adjusted net income of approximately $825 million... and adjusted EPS of approximately 60 cents per share."
Revenue guidance went up. Profit guidance did not move. Those same three figures were already the guidance in the April release.
By our arithmetic, first-half adjusted EPS of $0.24 against a ~$0.60 full-year figure leaves about $0.36 for the second half.
Where the street is
26 analysts, consensus Hold, average target $20.34 (median $19, range $12 to $30). The September book: Strong Buy 5, Buy 4, Hold 13, Sell 2, Strong Sell 2. Recent dated actions run in both directions: Scotiabank initiated Buy $25 (09-02), KBW maintained Sell $16 (09-03), Loop Capital initiated Hold $22 (09-08), William Blair reiterated Buy (09-10). (stockanalysis.com, sourced to S&P Global, page updated 2026-09-10.)
What is not established here
- The announcement is not proof of the day's move. SoFi opened up 5.6% the morning the release came out, and closed up 1.1%. That sequence is a fact; the causation is not, and nothing here explains why the gain faded.
- "First national bank to go live" is SoFi's own claim, made in its headline. We have not independently verified it against other banks' programs.
- No revenue figure has been attached to stablecoin settlement. The release describes settlement mechanics and merchant discussions, not economics. $25 billion is card volume migrating, not revenue.
- No Q3 2026 earnings date is confirmed. SoFi's IR events page showed no upcoming earnings event as of 2026-09-21; third parties pencil 2026-10-29 without confirmation.
- Recent insider filings are not sales of conviction. The seven Form 4s filed 2026-09-16 are RSU vesting with shares withheld or sold to cover tax, not open-market selling. CEO Anthony Noto held 12,276,337 shares afterward.
- Market cap of ~$22.2B is our arithmetic from the close and the share count, not a company disclosure.
What would change the read
- A number attached to the stablecoin business. Settlement volume is not revenue. The first quarter that quantifies it is the one that matters.
- A named large merchant. SoFi says discussions are active. An actual signing would be new information; another quarter of "discussions" is also information.
- Profit guidance. Revenue guidance has been raised twice this year while EBITDA, net income and EPS guidance have not moved since April. October is when that either changes or doesn't.
- The third earnings day. April fell 15%, July fell 9%, both on record quarters. A third record quarter that the stock does not sell would be the break in the pattern.
Educational commentary only. This is not investment advice, not a recommendation to buy or sell any security, and contains no price targets, entries, or position sizing of our own. Figures are as of the dates stated and decay. Verify everything against primary sources before acting on it.