Midterm Election Weeks: Four Historical S&P 500 Comparisons
This November 2 Short compares the S&P 500's prior Friday close with the Friday close of election week in the four most recent U.S. midterm elections. The November 3, 2026 vote is still ahead. Four historical observations are a small sample, not a forecast for this week.
Election-week closes
The index finished higher over each measured week: 2010 +3.60%, 2014 +0.69%, 2018 +2.13% and 2022 +5.90%. These are price changes between two regular-session closes, not intraday returns. The 2022 week also included a 2.08% decline on the day after the vote before its higher week-end close, showing why a positive full week does not describe every session within it.
Different market conditions and just four cases limit what this comparison can tell us. The next completed sessions will supply new evidence; the historical bars do not set a target or guarantee a direction. Watch the Short, read the Earnings Week Setup, and get the Sunday recap. Educational market research only, not a recommendation.
Sources and method: Yahoo Finance S&P 500 daily history, cross-checked against saved TradingView daily bars and FRED's S&P 500 series where available. Returns were recalculated from each prior Friday close and election-week Friday close. The source snapshot and exact dates are retained with the article assets.